This article was authored by Douglas Decicco of TranSeed Research, Lighthouse Point, Florida, and is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
ANALYSIS OF GLOBAL PUBLIC RECOMMENDATIONS
Most of the governments and government run facilities in the world, as of this writing, are recommending preventative measures much like this list.
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If you exhibit COVID-19 symptoms, stay home and contact your medical provider
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If you are in health-care or food supply services, go to work.
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Avoid gatherings of more than ten people.
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Avoid going out to eat or drink.
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If your child exhibits COVID-19 symptoms, keep them home and contact your medical provider.
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If you are elderly, stay home and keep a distance from others.
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Avoid unnecessary travel.
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Avoid social visits.
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Wash your hands frequently.
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Avoid touching your face.
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Cough and sneeze into a disposable paper product and throw it away or into the inside of your elbow if none are available.
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Disinfect surfaces frequently.
The current trajectory of the coronavirus disease in countries with recommendations made in this passive done indicates a stronger message is needed.
For instance, recommending that people avoid risky behavior may not be effective enough to save lives that could be saved. Recommending that people frequently wash their hands is not a very precise explanation of when to wash them. It may be clearer to say, “Wash hands whenever you or your children have touched anything that may have been infected by other and hasn’t yet been disinfected by you.”
Perhaps the publicists are keeping their sentences short to ensure the uneducated and impatient readers comprehend. Whatever their reason, these pronouncements do not adequately inhibit the transmission of viral loads sufficient to infect others.
LEVEL 2 BIOSAFETY
Levels of biosafety have been established for virology laboratories. This is a layman’s list of those preventative measures practices in biosafety level 2 facilities.
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Wash hands upon entering and exiting.
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Prohibit eating and drinking outside designated dining areas.
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Use protective equipment when working with materials that are likely to be infected.
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Lock external doors to limit access.
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Continuously read and practice the handling of potentially infected materials.
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Limit outside access to essentials — no nonessential visitors.
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Take extreme precautions with potentially contaminated sharp items.
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Disallow potentially infectious aerosols or conditions that lead to splashes.
Notice the difference between government recommendations and the level 2 biosafety standard. The insufficiency of what the public is typically receiving in government notices is likely the cause for low or zero impact of current preventative measures across the countries that are not willing to make stronger pronouncements to the public. Evidence for other explanations is weak.
SOME ADDITIONAL PRACTICAL RISK REDUCTION
It is important to limit the inconvenience and cost associated with much higher levels of safety. People are likely to want to save time, so ensuring the efficiency and effectiveness of each prevention measure is key to developing a solid prevention practice in homes and businesses.
One strategy is disinfection before introduction. The plane of a doorway is a good barrier through which no infected items pass.
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Received packages
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Groceries
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All containers, inside and out
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Shoes
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Clothes
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Hands
Another strategy is to become aware of what fingers, hands, and arms touch. Sources of coronavirus include these.
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Door knobs
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Cash
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Rails
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Handles
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Boxes
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Wrappers
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Uncooked foods
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Open drink containers
What we may touch after we’ve touched the above that can pass the viral load into the blood include these.
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Nose
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Eyes
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Ears
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Cuts
Lastly, it is important to reduce the likelihood of aerosol transmission (transmission through particles in the air) by thinking about where infected people may have coughed indoors recently, since coronavirus can last in stationary air for hours. With proper preventative awareness, the spread of strong viral diseases can be curtailed.
SOURCE MATERIAL AND BIBLIOGRAPHY
The following articles have logical and evidence based information that is credible from a data science perspective and is included in the basis for pronouncements in these articles, bulletins, and updates.
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Is a New SARS-like Virus on the Horizon? by Brian Dunleavy, May 5, 2016, Contagion Live
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a-sars-like-cluster-of-circulating-bat-coronaviruses-shows-potential-for-human-emergence.pdf Vineet D. Menachery, Boyd L. Yount Jr, Kari Debbink, Sudhakar Agnihothram, Lisa E. Gralinski, Jessica A. Plante, Rachel L. Graham, Trevor Scobey, Xing-Yi Ge, Eric F. Donaldson, Scott H. Randell, Antonio Lanzavecchia, Wayne A. Marasco, Zhengli-Li Shi, and Ralph S. Baric, 2015, University of N.C.
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SARS AND CHINA’S HEALTHCARE SYSTEM U.S. Congressional-Executive Commission on China, 108th Congress, First Session, May 12, 2003
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How did the COVID-19 coronavirus originate? | World Economic Forum by Alexandre Hassanin, published by World Economic Forum, March 20, 2020
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COVID-19 coronavirus epidemic has a natural origin — ScienceDaily March 17, 2020, source: Scripps Research Institute
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Wuhan Institute of Virology – Wikipedia Wikipedia article and source information
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Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf by Neil M Ferguson, Daniel Laydon, Gemma Nedjati-Gilani, Natsuko Imai, Kylie Ainslie, Marc Baguelin, Sangeeta Bhatia, Adhiratha Boonyasiri, Zulma Cucunubá, Gina Cuomo-Dannenburg, Amy Dighe, Ilaria Dorigatti, Han Fu, Katy Gaythorpe, Will Green, Arran Hamlet, Wes Hinsley, Lucy C Okell, Sabine van Elsland, Hayley Thompson, Robert Verity, Erik Volz, Haowei Wang, Yuanrong Wang, Patrick GT Walker, Peter Winskill, Charles Whittaker, Christl A Donnelly, Steven Riley, Azra C Ghani., on behalf of the Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team, WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Modelling
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Covid-19: The history of pandemics – BBC Future by Bryan Walsh, BBC, March 25, 2020
